WASHINGTON, Sept 20 (Reuters) – In late August, Pentagon officials delivered a blunt message to European diplomats: the U.S. plans to scale back security assistance to Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, all NATO members bordering Russia.
David Baker, a senior Pentagon official, told the group that under President Donald Trump the U.S. military would shift focus toward domestic defense and that Europe needed to reduce its dependence on Washington.
The warning stirred concerns that such a move could embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin. Those fears seemed justified on Friday when Estonia said Russian MiG-31 jets violated its airspace for about 10 minutes before being intercepted by Italian F-35s. Russia denied the incursion, insisting its aircraft flew over neutral waters. Hours later, Warsaw reported Russian jets buzzing a Polish oil platform, following a separate incident last week in which Russian drones entered Polish territory.
Trump remained silent for several hours before commenting that the incursion could be “big trouble.” After the Polish incident last week, he offered only a cryptic post on his Truth Social platform: “Here we go!”
A Shift Away from Diplomacy
The muted responses highlight a broader shift. After months of proposing solutions to global conflicts, Trump has recently pulled back from diplomacy, encouraging allies to take the lead while limiting U.S. involvement to distant assurances. His focus has increasingly turned to domestic priorities, including crime, immigration, and visa reform.
During the summer, Trump took a more active role: authorizing strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in June, pledging Patriot missile systems to Ukraine in July, and pressing Europe to sanction Russian oil buyers. He also hosted Putin in Alaska, though the summit yielded no breakthroughs and left Ukraine at a disadvantage.
Now, analysts say Trump is reverting to form. “He’s not interested in doing anything unless he sees the expenditure of effort and political capital will be worth the return,” said Aaron David Miller, a veteran diplomat at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
A Mercurial Approach
Trump’s foreign policy remains unpredictable. After floating a U.S. withdrawal from Ukraine in spring, he quickly re-engaged. And while Washington has reduced its visibility, U.S. weapons have recently been delivered through a NATO assistance program known as PURL.
Still, experts warn that weak U.S. responses to Russian provocations could invite further aggression. “Without the U.S. backing Europe, Putin will see division as an opportunity,” said Alex Plitsas, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
European diplomats privately describe exhaustion with Trump’s shifting stance. At a NATO summit in June, he praised allies and threatened Russia with sanctions, but his September call with European leaders was far frostier. Trump accused them of expecting U.S. support while still buying Russian oil.
The following week, he urged the EU to slap 100% tariffs on China and India for importing Russian crude — a demand European officials said was unrealistic, given the bloc’s preference for sanctions over tariffs.
Whether Friday’s airspace violation alters Trump’s calculus remains unclear. A White House official suggested Europe should shoulder more of the burden: “Many of our European allies are among the world’s wealthiest countries. They are fully capable of funding these programs if they choose.”
No comments:
Post a Comment